On the first night of the new year, Ukraine launched one of its most extensive long-range unmanned strikes of the war, sending waves of drones against at least 10 oil, fuel, and military facilities across Russia and occupied territory.
The coordinated operation reached as far as Tatarstan, about 1,300 kilometers from Ukrainian-held areas, and briefly shut down a Moscow airport after an airborne incident, exposing gaps in Russia’s air-defense network far from the front line.
Strategic Aims Behind the Deep Strikes
Ukraine’s General Staff described the New Year’s operation as an effort to limit Russia’s ability to sustain its military campaign by attacking the infrastructure that feeds it. Fuel depots, oil refineries, ammunition storage, drone facilities, and air-defense systems were among the primary targets, reflecting a strategy designed to weaken logistics rather than engage large ground formations directly.
These strikes are part of a broader Ukrainian shift toward long-range drone warfare, using relatively low-cost systems to complicate Russia’s supply lines and rear-area security. By forcing Russian planners to defend large areas deep inside the country, Kyiv aims to raise the cost and complexity of sustaining operations at the front while staying largely out of range of conventional ground retaliation.
Fires, Facility Damage, and Local Disruption
Several sites reported fires and emergency responses after the New Year’s attacks. Confirmed incidents included a blaze at the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region and a fire at a fuel depot serving Russia’s 51st Army near Ilovaisk in occupied territory. An oil preparation facility in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan, was also struck, with damage still being assessed in the days that followed.
Within roughly 48 hours, a cluster of energy assets around Krasnodar came under attack. The Tuapse refinery was hit on December 31, followed by the Ilsky refinery on January 1, and drones targeted the Tamanneftegaz oil and gas terminal along with a reserve oil depot. The pattern pointed to sustained pressure on key nodes of southern Russia’s energy network, forcing operators and local authorities to manage firefighting efforts, preventive shutdowns, and security reviews.
These incidents disrupted normal operations and, in some cases, temporarily affected regional fuel distribution. Emergency services worked to contain fires and prevent secondary explosions, while investigations moved ahead to determine how much infrastructure had been damaged and how quickly it could be restored.
Energy, Transport, and Environmental Ripples
Repeated strikes on refineries, depots, and terminals have introduced fresh uncertainty into Russia’s energy logistics. Even short-term outages can trigger rerouting of fuel flows, heavier reliance on reserves, or adjustments to export timetables. Ukrainian officials present this pattern as a long-term bid to erode Russia’s reputation as a dependable energy supplier and to introduce more friction into domestic distribution and overseas sales.
The New Year’s campaign also demonstrated how drone operations can affect transportation without directly hitting civilian infrastructure. A drone-related incident near Moscow led to the temporary closure of an airport, highlighting risks for civil aviation and raising questions about the safety and predictability of flights traversing Russian airspace. In the south, attacks near Black Sea–linked energy hubs raised concerns about tanker schedules, insurance rates, and route planning for maritime trade.
Fires at oil and fuel facilities released smoke and pollutants over surrounding areas, intensifying worries about local air quality and potential contamination of soil and water. While detailed environmental assessments were not immediately available, repeated incidents at industrial energy sites increase the likelihood of long-term impacts on nearby communities, agriculture, and ecosystems, especially when emergency responders face concurrent crises at multiple locations.
Exposed Air Defenses, Mounting Costs, and Daily Life
The New Year’s operation also highlighted vulnerabilities in Russia’s layered air-defense system. Among the reported targets was a Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile system near the settlement of Shevchenko. Successful drone penetrations into regions such as Tatarstan and Kaluga, combined with disruption to Moscow air traffic, have fueled questions over the coverage and responsiveness of Russian defenses when confronted with numerous small, low-flying drones over large distances.
Damage to military infrastructure and energy assets carries financial and operational costs. Strikes reported at the 100th Main Missile and Artillery Directorate facility in Kostroma and an oil depot in Lipetsk illustrated how hits on rear-area sites can drive up repair and replacement expenses, complicate logistics, and strain budgets. For Russia’s armed forces, such losses increase the challenge of maintaining a steady flow of ammunition, fuel, and equipment to frontline units.
Residents in affected regions, including Krasnodar, Tatarstan, and areas around Moscow, faced air-raid alerts, visible fires at refineries, and flight disruptions during the holiday period. These experiences brought the conflict’s effects more directly into everyday life for communities far from active fighting, underscoring how long-range drone warfare increasingly intersects with civilian routines and perceptions of security.
A New Phase in Drone Warfare and Its Wider Implications
Analysts noted that the New Year’s strikes, reaching distances of roughly 1,300 kilometers, rank among the deepest Ukrainian drone operations of the conflict. Both Ukraine and Russia are investing heavily in unmanned systems and the software that guides them, including AI-assisted targeting and navigation. The growing role of drones is pushing changes in air-defense planning, from detection technology to the deployment of interceptors and the protection of critical infrastructure.
Sustained long-range activity is also drawing attention from insurers and commercial operators. Companies that underwrite risks for energy infrastructure, aviation, and shipping are reassessing exposure around Russian facilities and airspace, with potential consequences for premiums and coverage terms. Businesses and households dependent on fuel supplies are being advised to track developments that could affect Russian production and exports, while travelers using routes near or through Russian airspace may face sudden schedule changes during periods of heightened drone activity.
The scale and reach of the New Year’s offensive suggest that long-range strikes are likely to remain a feature of the war in the year ahead, as both sides adapt and expand their capabilities. The contest now extends far beyond front-line trenches to refineries, depots, logistics hubs, and trade routes. How governments, industries, and communities respond to these evolving threats will help shape not only the course of the conflict but also the resilience of regional energy markets, transportation networks, and civilian life under the shadow of drone warfare.
Sources:
- CEPA, 2025″Russia’s Energy Vulnerabilities Exposed: Drone Warfare Implications” (Dec 2025)
- Euromaidan Press, 7 Jan 2026″Ukraine’s Record 1,300km Drone Raid Signals New Era in Asymmetric Warfare” (Jan 7, 2026)
- Institute for the Study of War, 5 Jan 2026″Russian Defensive Failures During Ukrainian New Year’s Drone Offensive” (Jan 5, 2026)
- MSN (syndicated report), 1 Jan 2026″Ukraine Launches Massive Drone Attack on Russian Oil Facilities for New Year” (Jan 1, 2026)
- MSN, 31 Dec 2025 & 1 Jan 2026″Drones Target Krasnodar Refineries Ahead of New Year” (Dec 31, 2025)
- UNITED24 Media, early 2026″How Ukraine’s Drone Makers Are Winning the Long-Range War” (Jan 3, 2026)