China Encircles Taiwan In Operation ‘Justice Mission 2025’—Tells Washington To ‘Stay Out’

China executed its most extensive military exercises around Taiwan on December 29-30, 2025, in an operation designated “Justice Mission 2025.”

The People’s Liberation Army mobilized forces across seven zones completely encircling Taiwan’s main island and outlying territories, demonstrating unprecedented capabilities to isolate the island from external support. The drills marked the sixth major exercise series since August 2022.​

Record-Breaking Military Assets Deployed

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected 130 Chinese aircraft within a 24-hour period on the first day, with 90 crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait—the second-highest daily total on record.

The operation included naval destroyers, amphibious assault ships, fighter jets, bombers, and Coast Guard vessels. By December 31, an additional 77 aircraft were tracked entering Taiwan’s airspace.​

Live-Fire Rockets Land Near Taiwan Waters

Chinese rocket artillery units in Fujian Province launched 27 rockets during the drills, with ten landing within Taiwan’s 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone—the closest Chinese munitions have ever come to Taiwan-controlled waters.

The deployment included PCL-191 systems, among the world’s longest-ranged conventional artillery platforms, marking a significant escalation in cross-strait military tensions.​

U.S. Arms Sale Triggers Beijing’s Response

The exercises followed the United States’ December 18 announcement of an $11.1 billion arms package to Taiwan—the largest in history.

The package includes 82 HIMARS rocket launchers valued at $4.05 billion, advanced missile systems, self-propelled howitzers, and anti-tank weapons. China’s Foreign Ministry condemned the sale as pushing the Taiwan Strait toward “a dangerous situation”.​

Japan’s Taiwan Statement Fuels Tensions

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November statement that Tokyo might exercise collective self-defense if China attacked Taiwan significantly contributed to Beijing’s decision to launch the drills.

This marked a departure from Japan’s traditional strategic ambiguity, with Takaichi explicitly connecting a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s legal framework for military action, infuriating Chinese President Xi Jinping.​

Blockade Simulation Demonstrates Strategic Capabilities

The drills specifically rehearsed comprehensive blockade scenarios targeting Taiwan’s critical ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung. Military analysts note the exercises simulated isolating Taiwan from maritime trade routes essential for energy and food imports.

Center for Strategic and International Studies wargaming suggests Taiwan’s natural gas reserves could be depleted within ten days of an effective blockade.​

Civilian Disruptions and Flight Cancellations

Over 80 domestic flights involving approximately 6,000 passengers were canceled on December 30 due to seven temporary “danger zones” established for live-fire drills. More than 100,000 international passengers faced delays or rerouting as airlines adjusted flight paths.

Flights to outlying islands Kinmen and Matsu were entirely suspended during live-fire periods, representing severe disruptions to civilian life.​

Taiwan Responds with Military Readiness

President Lai Ching-te’s administration activated emergency response centers and deployed forces across multiple domains, including scrambling Mirage-2000 fighter aircraft and conducting combat readiness exercises.

Taiwan’s military publicly showcased U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket systems during the drills as a deliberate signal of evolving strike capabilities. Lai characterized China’s actions as “not the behavior of a responsible world power”.​

International Condemnation Widespread but Limited

The European Union, Japan, United Kingdom, Philippines, Germany, France, and South Korea issued formal statements expressing concern about escalating tensions.

The EU declared the exercises “endanger international peace and stability,” while Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro warned of implications “beyond cross-Strait relations and into the broader Indo-Pacific community.” However, concrete measures to constrain Chinese behavior remained absent.​

Trump Administration’s Muted Response

President Trump downplayed the military drills despite his administration having just approved the massive arms package that partially triggered them.

The U.S. State Department issued no immediate formal condemnation, reflecting Trump’s prioritization of direct negotiations with President Xi Jinping. Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing in April 2026 to discuss trade relations.​

Economic Stakes: Semiconductor Supply Chain Vulnerability

Taiwan produces over 60 percent of global semiconductors and more than 90 percent of advanced chips essential for smartphones, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence systems.

A Chinese blockade would create critical shortages of materials required for semiconductor fabrication, with global electronics industry losses estimated at $500 billion. The Taiwan Strait handles approximately 20 percent of global maritime trade by value.​

Normalization of Military Escalation

Justice Mission 2025 represents the latest iteration in China’s deliberate pattern of normalizing increasingly aggressive military activities around Taiwan. Since August 2022, China has conducted six major exercise series, each incrementally expanding geographic scope and force complexity.

Defense analysts warn this normalization strategy desensitizes regional actors while creating operational advantages for potential conflict initiation through strategic deception.​

The 2027 Timeline and Strategic Window

U.S. intelligence assessments indicate President Xi Jinping instructed the PLA to “be ready by 2027” to conduct major operations against Taiwan, coinciding with the PLA’s centenary and Xi’s expected fourth term.

Beijing’s Fourth Plenum explicitly tied achieving “visible progress” on reunification to this timeframe, integrating Taiwan into China’s comprehensive national development objectives and creating a window of heightened conflict risk.​

Domestic Political Complications in Taiwan

Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature has blocked President Lai’s proposed $40 billion special defense budget five times in December and initiated impeachment proceedings against him.

While the impeachment lacks sufficient votes to succeed, China appears to be exploiting Taiwan’s political divisions as part of a broader coercion strategy to undermine Lai’s administration and strengthen China-accommodating political forces.​

Escalation Risks and Future Trajectory

The convergence of multiple factors—U.S. arms sales, Japan’s strategic shift, Taiwan’s domestic fragmentation, and Xi Jinping’s political commitment to reunification—creates dangerous conditions for miscalculation and unintended escalation.

While none of the principals appear to desire immediate armed conflict, the absence of communication channels between Beijing and Taipei eliminates safety valves for crisis management as military provocations push closer to the threshold of war.​